Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal party have a lot to be happy about. His campaign is going well. Tory lies have no effect, and as an added bonus, they have gained 5 points in the polls in the last week – indicating that a Harper majority is out of the question. While it’s still the first week, if the trends continue, the Liberals may have a good shot at forming the next government.Breaking Down the Numbers
While it is soon in the campaign, the trend lines that can be formed by recent events pit the Liberals as having a large amount momentum. If it sticks, the Liberals could overtake the Conservatives and possibly form a narrow minority government of their own.
The latest trends give the Liberals a large boost in momentum in every province but Ontario. As the numbers continue to be plotted, the NDP seems to be losing the bulk of its support – mainly due to its questionable relevance as a party that realistically cannot win the election, but instead poses as an obstacle for any party that tries to de-seat the Conservatives which seems to be the goal in the numbers. Conservative support is steady – these are Conservative loyalists and the shift is mainly seen in opposition numbers. In Ontario, the Conservatives probably will make gains but at the expense of the Prairies which has long been a Conservative strong-hold. While Conservative support remains strong in the west, a noticeable spike in Liberal support can be noted.
The Liberals still have a lot of work to do to maintain their narrowing of the gap, along with gaining enough support to form the government. But of all the parties, the Liberals are fairing the best in terms of the polls.
Party Standings
Steady sailing. Large drop in the Prairies. Modest Gains in Ontario. The bulk of the support is constant.
Noticeable increase. Steady in Ontario. Consistent Growth out west. Take-over out east. Gains have come from the NDP.
Noticeable decrease. Dropped in all regions. Sharpest drop in British Columbia and Ontario. The bulk of the losses went to the Liberals.
Noticeable decrease. Dropped in Quebec – most of the support shifted to the Liberals. The bulk of the losses went to the Liberals.
Steady sailing. Largest drop in British Columbia. Steady but small growth in Ontario and Quebec. The bulk of the support is constant.
2 comments:
I like this compass. It is a poll that has provoked many people to talk. It is good to hear the discussion going on with everyday Canadians. It indicates that Harper really does not have a grasp on Canadians like he though he did. It is apparent that his Attack Ads are no good as they are having no effect upon the campaign.
Apparently Iggy is doing better than what was expected. So we shall see in another week what the polls read. It will be much more interesting next week.
Thanks for the interesting polls to watch.
Very good data like the results!! ;)
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